The ECHILD project, led by University College London, consolidates health, education, and social care data for all children in England. I use the ECHILD database to evaluate the impact of interventions provided within the Children Affected by Domestic Abuse (CADA) project. My work involves causal inference from observational data, employing simulated randomised trials and instrumental variable analysis.

Associated publications

coming soon

I used pre-specified criminal, sociodemographic, and clinical risk factors to develop a dynamic prediction model for criminal recidivism in individuals under community supervision. The model takes into account adverse events that might occur during the community supervision (triggers for violence), changes in a supervised individual’s circumstances, and desistance from crime. It was deployed as an online dynamic risk assessment tool OxMore with good calibration and discrimination performance (c-index = 0.74 for violent reoffending, c-index = 0.69 for general reoffending).

Associated publications

Yukhnenko, D. (2021). Mental health risk factors for criminal recidivism and mortality in individuals given community sentences (Doctoral dissertation, University of Oxford).

I examined the association between psychiatric disorder, criminal recidivism and mortality in a large nationwide cohort of individuals given community sentences in Sweden. I employed a sibling design to account for potential unmeasured familial confounding. In individuals given community sentences, substance use and other psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased risk of premature death, predominantly due to suicide. Psychiatric disorders were also linked to increased risks of any reoffending and violent reoffending in this population, with substance use disorder associated with the highest risk. These findings highlight the importance of providing evidence-based treatment during community supervision to reduce preventable deaths and reoffending.

Associated publications

Yukhnenko, D., Blackwood, N., Lichtenstein, P., & Fazel, S. (2023). Association of substance use and other psychiatric disorders with all-cause and external-cause mortality in individuals given a community sentences in Sweden: a national cohort study. Lancet Regional Health - Europe.

Yukhnenko, D., Blackwood, N., Lichtenstein, P., & Fazel, S. (2023). Psychiatric disorders and reoffending risk in individuals with community sentences in Sweden: a national cohort study. The Lancet Public Health, 8(2), e119-e129.

Yukhnenko, D., Blackwood, N., & Fazel, S. (2020). Risk factors for recidivism in individuals receiving community sentences: A systematic review and meta-analysis. CNS Spectrums, 25(2), 252-263.

I am continuing the series of systematic reviews that examine recidivism rates and the reasons for their worldwide variation. Across jurisdictions, the reported recidivism rates vary substantially due to differences in definitions, follow-up times, and reporting practices. They are not a reliable instrument for comparing the effectiveness of correctional systems between countries. If you read the publications below, the next time you hear 'the recidivism rates in country A are lower than in country B by X%' on the news, you will know that this statement is meaningless.

Associated publications

Yukhnenko, D., Wolf, A., Blackwood, N., & Fazel, S. (2019). Recidivism rates in individuals receiving community sentences: A systematic review. PloS one, 14(9), e0222495.

Yukhnenko, D., Sridhar, S., & Fazel, S. (2019). A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update. Wellcome Open Research, 4.